With 10 weeks to go until the end of the season the heat is turning up on the teams at the top of the Premier Division and now we have 6 sides remaining that have a decent chance of earning a promotion place.
This season there are 2 possible promotion places on offer with the Champions being guaranteed Step 4 football and the runners-up going forward to a play-off match against the basement boys of a Division above. We would expect that to be at an Isthmian South East Division team, although not certain, with East Grinstead Town or Ramsgate looking most likely at the moment if it is. Win that one-off away game and promotion is all yours but who is the team likely to take it? Let’s have a closer look….
Points Per Game
With teams having played a different amount of games so far ‘Points Per Game’ gives us a good idea of how they are really performing.
Beckenham Town – 2.18
Corinthian – 2.09
Chatham Town – 1.95
Sheppey United – 1.95
Hollands & Blair – 1.71
Tunbridge Wells – 2.00
Now we look at how many points each team could have if they kept their current ‘Points Per Game’ averages going through to the end of the season. This will give us a rough idea of how many points could be needed for promotion this year and who will get it if results continue in the same way.
Beckenham Town – 78pts
Corinthian – 75pts
Tunbridge Wells – 72pts
Chatham Town – 70pts
Sheppey Utd – 70pts
Hollands & Blair – 62pts
This suggests that mid-70 points should be the target for the teams wanting promotion.
If we use 75 points as the target here are the results teams will need to get to reach that mark.
Beckenham Town – From 14 games – 9 wins
Corinthian – From 14 games – 10 wins
Chatham Town – From 14 games – 11 wins
Sheppey Utd – From 15 games – 12 wins
Hollands & Blair – From 12 games – 11 wins
Tunbridge Wells – From 16 games – 12 wins
There are many other scenarios that can happen when bringing draws into it but the above is a good guide for now!
Now we look at the fixtures remaining for each team. Many are against fellow promotion rivals and so are great opportunities to cause damage to a rivals potential points total while improving their own further.
Beckenham Town – Canterbury, Sheppey Utd, Deal, AFC Croydon, Welling, Hollands & Blair, Corinthian, Chatham Town, Fisher, Crowborough Ath, Tunbridge Wells, Lordswood, Deal, Glebe
14 games left – 4 against promotion rivals.
Corinthian – Tunbridge Wells, K Sports, Erith & Belvedere, Glebe, Bearsted, Fisher, Beckenham Town, Canterbury, Erith Town, Crowborough Ath, Chatham Town, Erith & Belvedere, AFC Croydon, Deal
14 games left – 3 against promotion rivals.
Chatham Town – Glebe, Welling, Erith & Belvedere, Tunbridge Wells, Punjab Utd, K Sports, Welling, Beckenham, AFC Croydon, Lordswood, Canterbury, Corinthian, Deal, Bearsted
14 games left – 3 against promotion rivals.
Sheppey United – Lordswood, Hollands & Blair, Beckenham, Canterbury, AFC Croydon, Erith Town, Glebe, Welling, Fisher, Erith & Belvedere, Lordswood, Bearsted, Punjab Utd, Glebe, Crowborough Ath
15 games left – 2 against promotion rivals.
Hollands & Blair – Sheppey Utd, Tunbridge Wells, Canterbury, Glebe, Crowborough Ath, Beckenham, Tunbridge Wells, Erith Town, Glebe, Deal, Bearsted, Welling
13 games left – 4 against promotion rivals.
Tunbridge Wells – Bearsted, Corinthian, Hollands & Blair, Glebe, Chatham Town, Erith Town, Deal, Erith & Belvedere, Glebe, Hollands & Blair, Lordswood, Punjab United, Beckenham, Welling, Canterbury, Erith Town
16 games left – 5 against promotion rivals.
As we see there are a few ‘six pointers’ to be played and plenty more football to go and in a Division where anyone can beat anyone it is certain that points will be dropped in all sorts of places. Also we should factor in the potential of fixture congestion caused by the bad weather and good Cup runs. Five of these teams also remain in one or two Cup competitions and could still have 3 or 4 games left in those, added to 14 league games and its’s a lot to squeeze into 10 weeks with this bad weather around! Whatever happens we will keep a close eye on the run-in from now through to the end and update this page after each round of games so we have a good idea of what is going on and what the scenarios are.
Good luck to all those involved!
This is an opinion piece written by Dean with the aim of making the promotion picture clearer. Some statements are my interpretation of what could happen and not an official stance from the League.
(Post Updated to 17th Feb)