Promotion Picture – First Division

As soon as we heard that there would be 4 promotion places up for grabs we knew that this First Division campaign would be a cracker. Now with just 9 weeks remaining of the season we have 8 teams left in the running and an exciting couple of months ahead. Half of those contenders will be happy with their work while the other 50% will be rueing missed chances, bad luck and that awful refereeing decision back in October.

Here we have a closer look at those left in the running and how the season may pan out from now until April 18th.

 

Current League Table

#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
1
w w w d w
>
23
15
4
4
65
33
32
49
2
w l w w w
>
22
15
2
5
63
30
33
47
3
w w w d w
>
20
13
6
1
44
11
33
45
4
w l w w w
>
22
14
2
6
52
31
21
44
5
d w w w w
>
22
12
6
4
45
29
16
42
6
w l w w w
>
21
12
4
5
36
28
8
40
7
w d w w l
>
23
11
5
7
52
31
21
38
8
l l d l w
>
21
10
3
8
46
37
9
33

 

Points Per Game

With teams having played a different amount of games so far ‘Points Per Game’ gives us a good idea of how they are really performing.

Holmesdale – 2.25
Kennington – 2.13
Rusthall – 2.13
Rochester Utd – 2
FC Elmstead – 1.90
Stansfeld – 1.90
SC Thamesmead – 1.65
Croydon – 1.57

Now we look at how many points each team could have if they kept their current ‘Points Per Game’ averages going through to the end of the season. This will give us a rough idea of how many points could be needed for promotion this year and who will get it if results continue in the same way.

Holmesdale – 72pts
Kennington – 68pts
Rusthall – 68pts
Rochester Utd – 64pts
FC Elmstead – 61pts
Stansfeld – 61pts
SC Thamesmead – 53pts
Croydon – 50pts

This suggests that mid-60 points should be the target for the teams wanting promotion. 

If we use 64 points as the target these are the results teams will need to achieve to reach that mark.

Kennington – From 9 games – 5 wins
Rusthall – From 10 games – 6 wins
Holmesdale – From 12 games – 7 wins
Rochester Utd – From 10 games – 7 wins
FC Elmstead – From 10 games – 8 wins
Stansfeld – From 11 games – 8 wins
SC Thamesmead – From 9 games – 9 wins
Croydon – From 11 games – 11 wins

There are obviously other scenarios when bringing draws into it but the above is a good basic guide.

 

Opposition Remaining

Now we look at the fixtures remaining for each team. Many are against fellow promotion rivals and so are great opportunities to cause damage to a rivals potential points total while improving their own further.

Kennington – Croydon, Croydon, Rusthall, Kent Football, Forest Hill Park, SC Thamesmead, Lewisham Boro, Meridian VP, Stansfeld
9 games left – 5 against promotion rivals.

Rusthall – Holmesdale, FC Elmstead, Kent Football, Kennington, Forest Hill Park, Lydd Town, Stansfeld, FC Elmstead, Snodland, Meridian VP
10 games left – 5 against promotion rivals.

Holmesdale – Rusthall, FC Elmstead, Stansfeld, Bridon Ropes, Greenways, Sutton Ath, Lewisham Boro, Kent Football, Forest Hill Park, Croydon, Rochester Utd, SC Thamesmead
12 games left – 5 against promotion rivals.

Rochester Utd – Sutton Ath, Bridon Ropes, Lewisham Boro, Lydd Town, Croydon, Bridon Ropes, Meridian VP, Holmesdale, FC Elmstead, Stansfeld
10 games left – 4 against promotion rivals.

FC Elmstead – Rusthall, Holmesdale, SC Thamesmead, Lewisham Boro, Greenways, Lydd Town, Rusthall, Bridon Ropes, Rochester Utd, Forest Hill Park
10 games left – 5 against promotion rivals.

Stansfeld – Snodland Town, Holmesdale, Meridian VP, Lewisham Boro, SC Thamesmead, Greenways, SC Thamesmead, Rusthall, Croydon, Rochester Utd, Kennington
11 games left – 7 against promotion rivals.

SC Thamesmead – Bridon Ropes, FC Elmstead, Stansfeld, Meridian VP, Stansfeld, Kennington, Greenways, Forest Hill Park, Holmesdale
9 games left – 5 against promotion rivals.

Croydon – Kennington, Kennington, Meridian VP, Lewisham Boro, Bridon Ropes, Rochester Utd, Sutton Ath, Stansfeld, Greenways, Holmesdale, Snodland Town
11 games left – 5 against promotion rivals.

Summary

As we see there are plenty of ‘six pointers’ to be played and although most have 5 games to go against fellow promotion contenders, Stansfeld have 7, which gives them great chance to catch up on those above them. Holmesdale have games in hand but they are only good if they are converted into points. If they can continue their current good form then they are looking good for one of the four places but nothing is guaranteed and anyone can beat anyone in this Division on their day. We will certainly keep a close eye on the run-in from now through to the end and update this page after each round of games because I have no doubts that the next few weeks will be interesting plus bring with it a growing amount of attention as the final few games close in and the tension and excitement builds.

Good luck to all those involved!

 
This is an opinion piece written by Dean with the aim of making the promotion picture clearer. Some of the comments are my interpretation of how things may go and not an official stance from the League.

(Post Updated to 17th Feb)





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